Risk, Currency and the Canadian Dollar

Risk is well known board game, played on a map of the world, in which players effectively bet (take on calculated risk) and play to take over more and more countries and ultimately rule the world.

I am just musing here, but if you were taking stock of countries and their respective currencies, would it be wrong to consider a common sense sort of bird’s eye view of the countries in the world in say five different categories and give strong consideration to the impact of the results of such an exercise?

I would consider:

  1. current status (stage and reputation in economic development and world reputation),
  2. political climate (democratic, responsible, international reputation/relations and involvement, the people/voters)
  3. resources (educated or trained people , access to credit/money, water, food production, oil, metals, minerals, lumber etc)
  4. institutional infrastructure and resources (stability of financial institutions, existence of or ability to create education/training to meet needs)
  5. location (ocean ports, proximity/access to significant markets).

It is hard for me to imagine a combined assessment of the above comparing Canada against most countries in the world, would be anything but in favour of Canada. In a time of growing world population, there is surely going to be an opportunity, a reliance even, on Canada to be a significant contributor in the world economy.

I often run strategic business decisions through a “what if gauntlet” to see how they survive different scenarios. So if this kind of assessment makes sense to you like it does to me, maybe some thought in your business should be given to business and managing risk in an environment where in the long term the Canadian Dollar trades much closer to par with the US Dollar than the flirting with the 70’s that it has been doing recently. Just a thought……

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